As we enter the final week of the general election, we have summarised the Conservative and Labour manifestos, focusing on education and implications for the school estate.

Key takeaway:

A year has nearly passed since RAAC (reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete) shone a temporary light on the condition of the school estate. While the media attention may have passed, schools and academy trusts are still managing aging school estates with dwindling capital funding. The Department for Education (DfE) acknowledges the impact of building quality on measures such as pupil attainment and teacher retention (National Audit Office (NAO), School Buildings Report, June 2023), yet new policies for the school estate are missing from both manifestos.

The Conservative manifesto:

The headlines: Promises of tax cuts, an increase in defence spending funded by cutting the projected welfare bill by £12bn, reducing civil servant numbers, cutting management consultant fees and quango efficiencies. Detailed spending plans are not provided, and existing budget numbers suggest large cuts to the public services in unprotected areas and fixing capital spending in cash terms.

Education core spending: the manifesto commits to protecting per pupil spending levels, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have pointed out that this means schools will have seen no real terms increase in spending since 2010. Additionally, given pupil numbers are expected to fall by 400,000 by the end of the next parliament, this could mean a cut of up to £3.5bn in core school spending if they decide to redirect the money elsewhere.

The school estate: details on capital investment only reference plans already in progress, including rebuilding over 500 schools through the School Rebuilding Programme. Given all the places have now been taken, with a significant number of the remaining spaces being taken by schools with RAAC, what will happen to other schools in need of major capital investment if there is no further extension of the SRBP? Additionally, the DfE had suggested a large scale roll out of decarbonisation initiatives across the school estate from 2025 onwards, however current plans do not suggest an injection of capital is forthcoming.

Finally, for special educational needs, the manifesto commits to the building of 15 new special schools, which was announced in the Spring budget.

Academy system: commits to expanding strong academy trusts.

Key education policy: the manifesto commits to four major policy announcements including:

National service for 18-year-olds
100,000 new apprenticeships
Scraping some university courses
And a recommitment to the Advanced British Standard.

Labour’s manifesto:

The headlines: The manifesto reinforces its commitment to a mission driven government. It focuses on growing the economy as the driver bridging the gap between current spending plans and the resource needed to ensure there are no cuts to public services.

The IFS’s initial response concluded that it “promises a dizzying number of reviews and strategies to tackle some of the challenges facing the country…But delivering genuine change will almost certainly also require putting actual resources on the table. And Labour’s manifesto offers no indication that there is a plan for where the money would come from to finance this.”

Education core spending: there is no mention of what they would do to core education funding, leaving uncertainty on their overall approach.

The school estate: absent from the manifesto and based on the current spending plans which they appear to have signed up to, like the Conservatives, capital spending will be fixed in cash terms and subject to inflationary pressures.

Academy system: a commitment to introduce Ofsted inspections of multi-academy trusts.

Key education policy: while the manifesto includes only small changes to tax and spend, education and health are the key beneficiaries of these spending commitments. Funded education policies include:

Recruitment of 6,500 new teachers in key subjects.
Free breakfast clubs in every primary school.
Opening an additional 3,000 nurseries through upgrading space in primary schools.
Bringing mental health practitioners into school to support youth mental health.
Afforded by ending tax breaks for private schools.

Other areas without clear spending plans include:

A review of the curriculum to deliver “a curriculum which is rich and broad, inclusive, and innovative.” Improving access to music, drama and sport and supporting children to study a creative or vocational subject.
High-quality apprenticeships and specialist technical colleges.
Replacing single-word Ofsted grade judgements.
Support and of new Regional Improvement Teams, to enhance school-to-school support, and spread best practice.

Conclusion:

Neither party’s manifestos acknowledge the scale of the overall challenge they face over balancing tax rises and public spending, something the IFS have called a “conspiracy of silence.”

The lack of mention of new plans for the school estate leaves us in the dark over what the next government may do to start addressing the structural challenges facing the aging school estate. This is before we consider the impending need to decarbonise, a task which the previous government anticipated would cost billions.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding policy towards the school estate, our advice to schools and multi academy trusts would be the similar regardless of the funding outlook. Take a strategic approach using information and data collected across your buildings and then prioritise work in order of urgency, need and how well it meets your educational objectives. Consider both structural and energy efficiency requirements with a clear roadmap and understanding of the costs and work needed.

This strategic approach will provide the confidence that you are managing resources efficiently in times where capital may be scarce while also being ready should an injection of funding materialise. For more information on how Surveyors to Education can assist you in your analysis and planning, please get in touch. 0116 5070130 or email enquire@s2e.org.uk.